Welcome to another edition of Saber rattling. I still haven’t been fired, so let’s dig in!
Last week I introduced the idea that statistics is the language of baseball. Building on that, I want to use today’s time to describe a couple of players using traditional metrics ( think basic vocabulary ) and advanced statistics ( academic vocabulary ). The reason for an experiment like this is simple; detailed player descriptions enrich our understanding and appreciation of the game.
Over the last couple of months, talking heads on baseball analysis shows have offered comparisons between Shohei Ohtani and Babe Ruth . I happen to believe we’re about fifteen years too early to be having this discussion. Still, I’ll entertain the idea that meaningful comparisons can be made between the two.
For starters, the obvious comparison is that both pitched and hit. You already know that. It also means you know the only reason these two are being compared is they are members of a small fraternity of ballplayers to have done both at the major league level. Let’s begin by looking at Ruth’s traditional numbers.
Babe Ruth had a career batting average of .342. It is unheard of in the modern game for a player to hit at such a high level for his entire career. You probably also know that Babe Ruth was the career leader in home runs ( 714 ) until he was unseated by Hank Aaron ( 1974 ). Ruth hit for power and average while also collecting more than 2,000 walks and RBIs each. As a pitcher, the Babe struck out 373 batters while walking 349. He allowed only six home runs in 3,997 plate appearances. Ruth’s ERA was 2.28, and his career win-loss record was 94 – 46. According to the traditional metrics, Babe Ruth was worthy of all the accolades bestowed on him.
Everything I said about Ruth was pleasant. It’s the equivalent of a wiki or encyclopedic entry that provides the basic facts about the man’s career in primary baseball language. Knowing only those facts—which represents a limited proficiency in statistics—is sufficient for casual baseball conversation. You could go to a cocktail party or family barbecue and, at least, be a part of the conversation. At the same time, there is no depth of context to the basic facts. Aside from knowing that Ruth did, in fact, accomplish the feats listed above, we cannot picture how dynamic his achievements were for his time nor for how they compare to modern players. This is where the rich and colorful descriptive language of advanced statistics ( sabermetrics ) comes in.
Babe Ruth’s accomplishments can be framed by a context that adds shades of gray to his stark black-and-white traditional statistics using our academic baseball vocabulary. For example, Ruth actually had a career batting average on balls in play ( BAbip ) lower than his career batting average ( .339 v .342 ). As impressive as his career batting average is, the lower BAbip tells us the Bambino was as strong as an ox but likely as slow as one too. We know this because the combined league average BAbip for all players since 1901 is actually 28 points higher than the combined league batting average ( .299 v .261 ). If I were a hipster kid—which I’m not—I might say that Ruth fella ain’t got no wheels.
Let’s not feel too awful for the Babe, though. Our sabermetric lexicon tells us he is top five among Hall of Fame batters in five advanced statistics: total bases per plate appearance, extra bases per hit, total base run percentage, on-base plus slugging percentage, and awarded first base percentage. Add to that a number six ranking among HOFers in home runs per total base, and you can appreciate the full value Ruth brought to the plate. The man not only mashed the long ball but was also among the best ever in six of the nine advanced statistics responsible for determining a player’s overall value as a batter. Babe Ruth’s most significant batting accomplishments are his historically weighted Batting Effectiveness Score ( bEFT+, 129.74 ), which is second only to Josh Gibson ( 132.86 ) among HOFers, and his Run-Value ( run production above average, RVAL ), which was number one all-time ( 1,070.8 runs produced above average ).
As a pitcher, Ruth’s advanced statistics were impressive but not as stellar as you might think. Babe played in an era where pitchers held a 51.3 – 48.7% advantage in yearly Effectiveness Scores ( EFT ). In truth, this seems like more evidence to support the Sultan’s offensive prowess. Still, we need to place his batting and pitching in context if we are going to compare him to Shohei Ohtani.
Over Ruth’s short pitching stint, he would rank first or second in six of the nine advanced statistics responsible for a player’s overall value as a pitcher IF he had pitched at that level for an entire career. The beauty of having this level of statistical data— academic vocabulary —is that we can distinguish between Babe’s impressive pitching achievements and the reality that pitchers held the upper hand when he pitched. It is an important distinction because we can see that while Ruth had a historically weighted Pitching Effectiveness Score ( pEFT+ ) 2.5% above average, that EFT+ score over an entire pitching career would rank thirtieth among HOF pitchers. It turns out that Ruth probably had what it took to become a Hall of Fame pitcher, though not nearly at the level of his singular hitting talent.
Using traditional numbers offers more of a challenge to evaluate Shohei Ohtani because he simply doesn’t have a large volume of raw data. As a result, using our primary baseball vocabulary to describe his performance leaves something to be desired. Nevertheless, Ohtani has 91 home runs, 241 RBIs, 166 walks, and a .264 career batting average in just under four seasons as a batter. It’s a decent start to his career. Even if he were only a hitter, his traditional numbers would be sufficient to keep him employed. In just over two years as a pitcher, Shohei has 202 strikeouts to 71 walks. He has allowed 18 home runs over 700 plate appearances. His ERA is 3.68, and his career win-loss record is 13 – 5. Just like his batting, Ohtani’s traditional pitching stats are good but don’t seem to compare with Babe Ruth on any level.
It is only when we incorporate our academic vocabulary of advanced statistics that we can examine Shohei Ohtani’s actual value. Shotime’s extra bases per hit is actually higher than Ruth’s ( .493 v .472 ), as is his home runs per total base ( .126 v .123 ). Unfortunately for Shohei, batters have the upper hand in the modern game. During Ohtani’s brief career, batters hold a 51.7 – 48.3% advantage in yearly EFT scores. It translates to a historically weighted Batter Effectiveness Score 11% above average ( 111.40 ), which is still quite good but nowhere near Ruthian .
Given the advantage batters enjoy in the modern game, Shohei’s pitching stands out all the more. His historically weighted Pitcher Effectiveness Score is 4.5% above average, nearly twice the effectiveness ( pEFT+ ) of Ruth’s pitching. In fact, if Ohtani were to hypothetically pitch at this level for an entire career, he would have the eighth highest EFT+ score of any pitcher in the HOF. Without having access to these advanced measures, we would likely rate Shotime as the lesser pitcher because the only individual category where he bests Ruth is strikeouts per plate appearance ( .289 v .093 ).
Whew.
Those player descriptions are filled with dense statistical vocabulary. I don’t particularly enjoy lengthy baseball discussions that focus solely on academic terms. If I get restless with complex jargon as a stat geek, I imagine casual fans might be looking for the exit. All the same, I wanted to illustrate the shift in conversation that comes with richer, more descriptive vocabulary.
Using the stronger descriptors, I can comfortably say I believe Babe Ruth is definitively the superior player. All the evidence— the advanced statistics —points to him being a true legend as a batter. Ohtani seems to be a more effective pitcher at this point in his career. Even then, we are talking about Shotime just now reaching the number of batters faced a starting pitcher would expect to see in a modern season, let alone a starter’s numbers when Ruth pitched. All told, I stand by my original statement that we are nowhere near ready to have any conversation comparing Ruth and Ohtani as equals. The data simply doesn’t support it. The language of baseball ( statistics ) provides numerous descriptions that suggest Ruth is one of the best—if not the best—ever baseball players. Sorry, Shotime. Maybe your time will come.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this weekly column. I want to challenge your thinking about baseball statistics. Someday, my own research on the game will become outdated. Please feel free to spar with me about the ideas I’ve presented here—I enjoy the discussion because it challenges my thinking. I can be reached here on Baseball Almanac, via email atchriswrites@schristophermichaels.com, and I’m on the social media ( Facebook , Twitter ). As always, this has been the World According to Chris . Thanks for tuning in.
